Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Bilateral Trade Flows

Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Bilateral Trade Flows Chapter 1: Introduction The relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade flows has been extensively reviewed in literature. Exchange rate volatility refers to the extent to which prices of currencies tend to fluctuate over time. Theoretical literature has provided diverging views on the effect on exchange rate volatility on trade flows. Some authors argue that an increase in exchange rate volatility implies that risk averse firms are faced with uncertainty with respect to their earnings and hence would generally respond by redirecting their activity to local markets. On the other hand, other researchers pointed out that when the assumption of risk aversion is lifted, it can be argued that market participants are more likely to take advantage of the fluctuations in the exchange rate so as to increase their profits which will cause an increase in international trade. The various empirical studies carried out on this topic have not been able to establish a clear link between exchange rate volatility and trade. Therefore from both theoretical and empirical point of view, the relationship between exchange rate and volatility is ambiguous. Mauritius is often cited as an example of a country which has undergone successful trade liberalization and export-led growth. It is also said that trade policies has shaped the countrys path of industrial development, contributing to over two decades of steady growth and propelling the country in the ranks of the â€Å"newly industrialized economies†. However since the 1960s, the Mauritius has experienced much changes and reforms in its trade policy. Early trade policies adopted by Mauritius involved an import substitution strategy while at the same time providing incentives for export promotion. However as from the 1980s, Mauritius moved towards a more outward-oriented strategy and embarked on trade liberalisation. Imports restrictions and tariffs were reduced while economic stability was maintained. By the mid-1990s, Mauritius had one of the most liberal economic regimes in Africa. Incentives for export promotion like tax incentives, preferential rates of borrowing and so o n were maintained. One of the key factors of exports competitiveness is the level of exchange rate in Mauritius which had to be kept low. In addition the exchange rate regime itself in Mauritius has been deregulated over the years in a set of financial liberalisation measures. The exchange rate regime in Mauritius has also evolved from a fixed exchange rate system to a manage float one. In the 1970s, Mauritius adopted a pegged exchange rate system where the rupee was first pegged to the sterling. The rupee started floating vis-à  -vis other foreign currencies in June 1972 while still being pegged to the sterling. However as from 1976, the Mauritian rupee was delinked from the sterling and was pegged to the SDR. The rupee-SDR peg lasted for seven years and as from 1983 Mauritius pegged its currency to a trade-weighted basket of currencies. This is because the appreciation of the dollar US which had the highest weight in the SDR basket caused the rupee to appreciate considerably and hence causing inflation. Hence the Mauritian rupee had to be delinked to the SDR. In the 1990s, Mauritius embarked on a set of financial li beralisation reforms and in 1994 exchange rate controls were removed and Mauritius adopted a manage float exchange rate regime. The evolution of the exchange rate system from a fixed to a manage float one implies that the exchange rate in Mauritius is subject to wider fluctuations. This begs the question whether the fluctuations in the rupee has any significant impact on the volume of trade in Mauritius and which of the theories advanced by researchers is applicable for Mauritius. Bilateral trade between Mauritius and USA is considered to assess this question. The rest of the paper is organised as follows: Chapter 2 presents a broad survey of the literature concerning the relationship between trade and exchange rate volatility. Chapter 3 describes the model that will be used and presents the methodology that will be applied. Chapter 4 presents the empirical findings of our study and the interpretation of our results. Finally chapter 5 presents the summary and conclusion of our study and also provides some policy implications and implications. 2.1 Introduction The 1970s saw the demise of the Bretton Woods system since a fixed exchange rate system no longer appeared feasible given the speculative flows of the currencies. This led to the adoption of a freely-floating exchange rate regime by many countries. Since March 1973, exchange rates have become more volatile and less predictable than they were during the fixed exchange rate period when changes occurred infrequently. There have been considerable investigations on the effect of Exchange rate volatility on the volume of trade. The increase in the risk of international transactions led researchers to investigate the exchange rate volatility-trade flows connection. Investigators argue that variability increases uncertainty and risk which causes firms to produce less than they would produce under certainty. This view was supported by Baron(1970), Clark(1973) and Ethier(1973). Empirical studies which yielded a negative relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade include Akhtar and Hilton(1984), Fountas and Aristotelous(1999), Arize(1997, 1998a and 1998b) and Rose(2000). However other authors have rejected this view, arguing that the exchange rate volatility have very little or at times even positive impact on trade volume. Researchers like Hooper and Kohlhagen (1978), Bahmani et Tavlas(1988), Bahmani et al.(1993), Bailey, Tavlas and Ulan(1987), found evidence of a negative effect of exchange rate uncertainty on trade volume, the effect was insignificant. Klassen(2004) also found no significant relationship between Exchange rate volatility and international trade. Research conducted by McKenzie and Brooks(1997), Franke(1991), Neumann(1995), Viaena and Vries(1992) and Baum et al(2004) on the other hand found a positive relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade. Other researchers like Cushman(1983) on the other hand obtained mixed results. This chapter provides an overview of the vast literature that covers this particular issue of exchange rate volatility and trade. Section 2.2.1 provides an overview traditional exports and imports functions used in most studies and their findings. Section 2.2.2 elaborates on additional factors which have been used in empirical studies. Finally section 2.2.2.4 outlines the research carried out to determine the relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade. Literature defines volatility as the tendency of prices to fluctuate either up or down. Exchange rate volatility is in fact a measure of how exchange rate changes over time. It has been argued that exchange rate volatility has a significant impact of the level of trade. First we will discuss the various factors that have an impact of trade in an economy. 2.2 Determinants of Bilateral Trade Flows Most of the empirical works used the traditional export and import demand models. While the traditional models were deemed to be significant in explaining trade, these works were often deemed to be unsatisfactory since several key determinants of trade were omitted which led to unreliable results and conclusions. Therefore, the traditional trade function was used in addition to other explanatory variables. Nevertheless, the major contribution of the traditional trade model in explaining exports and imports cannot be ignored. 2.2.1 Traditional Export Demand Function The traditional export demand function commonly used by many studies was expressed as a function of real income, relative prices and/or exchange rate. This was termed by Goldstein and Khan (1985) as the imperfect substitute model. An aggregate export demand linking real exports with a measure of foreign real income and relative prices is an important element in most conventional trade models. In theory, the higher the foreign income, the higher the demand for export. This is because an increase in foreign income is relative to an increase in the purchasing power of the foreign economy. Likewise an increase in domestic income will increase the demand for imports. Real foreign income were normally proxied using real GDP or real GNP or index of industrial production of the foreign economy. Relative prices were also included in the model. Relative prices are an indicator of a countries competitiveness and are normally proxied by the ratio of foreign prices to domestic prices or the ratio of import prices to import prices. Exports and relative prices is expected to have a positive relationship since an increase in relative prices implies that foreign prices are increasing which means that the competitiveness of exports is increasing. One of the most influential empirical work on export demand was that of Senhadji and Montenegro(1999) who estimated demand elasticities for a large number of developing and industrial countries using OLS and Phillip Hansenss fully modified ordinary least square techniques. They found that exports react to both the trade partners income and to relative prices in a large sample of both developing and industrial countries. Marquez and McNeilly(1988) examined income and price elasticities for exports of non-OPEC developing countries using quarterly data for 1973-84. This study was based on the two-stage square estimation technique. Import prices, real income and lagged endogenous variables were the main explanatory variables. They found a positive and significant income elasticities for exports and a significant relationship between prices and exports. Among other prominent empirical works which find a positive and significant relationship between trade and income are Sachs and Warner(19 95), Frankel and Romer(1999) and Edwards(1998). Wu(2004)constructed a foreign trade model for China using error correction model. They found a significant and inelastic relationship between relative price and export demand. Other empirical works included exchange rate as a determinant of export in their model. It is widely known in the international trade literature that a change in real exchange rates will affect trade flows directly with all other things being equal. A change in the real exchange rate rather than a change in the nominal exchange rate will affect exports and imports under the Generalized Marshall-Lerner condition. Also real exchange rate is another important measure of a countrys competitiveness. Real exchange rate is the nominal exchange rate that has been adjusted for inflation differentials. A real depreciation or devaluation of domestic currency will lead to an improvement in trade flows of a country and vice versa. This is because if the price of the currency of a country is low, its exports will be cheaper hence demand for its exports will increase. Imports also will be affected since imports will appear more expensive to local residents. However empirical works have found diverg ing results when assessing whether exchange rate have any effects on trade. Miles (1979) tested the effects of devaluation by entering the exchange rate directly into the trade flows. The results obtained were not conclusive since the exchange rate coefficient with respect to trade flows was significant in only three out of 14 cases examined. Warner and Kreinin(1983) specified the determinants of trade flows of 19 developing countries using conventional models. They found that the effect of real exchange rate changes on the volume of exports are significant as predicted by the theory. Similarly Himarios(1989) reassessed the impact of devaluation on real magnitude of trade flows and found that real exchange rates had a significant effect on trade flows. Rose (1991) analysed the relationship between the effective real exchange rate and the real trade flows for five major Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries: the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, Japan, and the United States. He found no relationship between these two variables, and thus the generalized Marshall-Lerner condition did not hold. Bahmani-Oskooee and Malixi (1992) based their work on Almon lag structure on real exchange rate but found no support for a relationship between trade and real exchange rate. However on employing the Engle-Granger cointegration approach, Bahmani-Oskooee and Alse (1994) assert that the long-run impact of devaluation on the trade balance model is positive. Bahmani-Oskooee concluded that trade flows are more responsive to changes in relative prices and to changes in the exchange rates in the long run than in the short run. Brada et al. (1997), who divided the data set into two sub-samples, reports no long-run relationship between the variables of the trade balance function in the 1970s but they have revealed reverse results for the 1980s Kale (2001) points out that a real depreciation of the domestic currency helps to improve the trade balance with a lag of about one-year and the impacts of devaluations on the trade balance are positive in the long-run. Haque et al.(1990) used a generalised non-linear 3-staged least square estimation for the period 1963-87. They used a conventional model where real imports is expressed as a function of real domestic output, real exchange rate and a lagged import term. All signs were significant. Real imports were found to be real exchange and income inelastic. While the above factors were used as the main determinants of exports, there are also other also factors which are important determinants of trade. 2.2.2 Other factors affecting bilateral trade 2.2.2.1 Inflation rate and trade Inflation is defined as a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. High inflation is like to have a negative effect on trade flows because it reduces exports competitiveness and makes imports cheaper. When domestic price rises, foreign goods are relatively cheaper (ceteris paribus) and demand for imports should increase, Inflation adversely affects some sections of the population, distorts relative prices, erodes value of financial assets and creates uncertainty and instability in the economy. This may lead to an overall decrease in output in the economy since investors and producers is faced with uncertainty about future prices and economic outcome. Gylfason(1998) used cross-sectional data covering 160 countries for the period 1985-1994 and found that high inflation tended to be associated with low exports in proportion to GDP. Kotan and Saygili(1999) found that inflation rate significantly and positively affect non-oil exportati on in the long-run while in short run inflation did not have any significant impact of non-oil production. 2.2.2.2 Investment and Trade   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  There are valid theoretical reasons why a high investment ratio should give rise to a strong export growth performance. One theoretical background is provided by Ghosh and Chandrasekhar(2001). They stated that the rate at which international trade grows varies over any period. Also a countrys ability to increase its exports would depend on its production structure and the rate at which this structure is changing. Furthermore, countries normally engage in international trade by XXXodernizesXXXg in the production of certain commodities only. Therefore a countrys ability to increase its exports will therefore depend on its capacity to rapidly transform its production structure in the direction of commodities where world trade would grow faster. The rapidity of this transformation is linked to the investment ratio(ratio of investment to GDP), that is the higher the investment ratio, the higher the rate of transformation of the production-structure and hence the greate r the ability of the country to participate in world trade, that is the greater the rate of export growth. Also production capacity, potential productivity, cost effectivesness, production process will all be increased by properly-oriented investment and hence export competitiveness should also increase. Investment is said to enlarge the production base and thus increasing production capacity. It XXXodernizes production processes and thus improving cost effectiveness. It also allows for the production of new and improved products, increasing value added in production. In addition it incorporates international world-class innovations and quality standards. All this leads to an active participation in international trade and favourably affects exports. Patnaik and Chandrasekhar(1996) in their research analysed cross sectional data for 25 developing countries for 20 years and found a positive relationship between investment-ratio and export growth. FDI is said to foster innovation and competitiveness in the local industry. Moreover it contributes to technological innovation and increased production capacity in the domestic economy. Another import element of investment is foreign direct investment(FDI) which has been argued to be a prominent factor in promoting exports. Horst(1972), Lipsey and Weiss(1984), Head and Ries(2001) and Camarero and Tamarit(2004) are among the authors that find a positive relationship between FDI and trade. 2.2.2.3 Capacity Utilisation and Trade Capacity utilization refers to the extent to which an enterprise or a nation actually uses its installed productive capacity. Thus, it refers to the relationship between actual output that is produced with the installed equipment and the potential output which could be produced if capacity was fully used. From theoretical and empirical point of view, the relationship between capacity utilisation and exports is ambiguous. On one hand, researchers argue that when firms uses excess capacity, this will increase to a general increase in capacity utilisation and will lead to an increase in output. It will be possible for firms to export more. Productivity also may increase since firms are employing more of their excess capacity. Likewise an increase in foreign capacity utilisation is likely to have a negative impact on domestic exports. This is because an increase in foreign capacity utilisation means firms are able to increase their productivity and output. Also Hooper and Kohlagen(1978) who were the first to introduce capacity utilisation in their model to determine the relationship between exchange rate volatility and exports, argued that as domestic capacity utilisation increases, domestically produced goods are delivered with longer lags and hence decreasing quantity demanded of imports. Likewise an increase in foreign capacity should decrease the demand of exports. Correa, Dayoub and Francisco(2007) in their study found that domestic capacity utilisation positively affect export intensity of Ecuador. On the other hand other authors argue that exports growth is possible mainly in the presence of large unemployment of domestic resources. Dunlevy(1979) and Artus(1977) argued that in the long run an increase in capacity utilisation will reduce the quantity of exports and increase the export prices. However Medhora(1990) found that both domestic and foreign capacity utilisation was insignificant in explaining West African imports. 2.2.2.4 Exchange Rate Volatility and trade Basic uncertainty trade models   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  The traditional models examine the behaviour of undiversified firms and are based on the assumption that the firms profitability is linked directly and unambiguously to the movement in one bilateral exchange rate. The variability of that exchange rate is assumed to measure the risk to the firm in conducting trade. Therefore in the simplest model, higher exchange rate risk is assumed to have a negative impact on trade, since it creates uncertainty with respect to profits of firms exports and, hence, lead risk-averse exporters to reduce their supply of exports, an effect that increases with the degree of risk aversion.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  An example provided by Clark(1973) can be used to illustrate the concept of how exchange rate volatility can affect the level of a firms exports. Clark develops a model of a firm operating under competitive conditions. In the simplest version described, it is assumed that the firm produces a homogeneous commodity which is sold entirely in a foreign market. The firm has no market power and its does not import any inputs and the production decision is taken before observing exchange rate volatility, therefore output is constant over the planning horizon. Also the price of the exported good in foreign currency is an exogenous variable. The firm in paid in foreign currency and hedging possibilities such as forwards or futures market is very limited. The firm converts its proceeds from exports at the current exchange rates. Given the above assumptions, variability in the exchange rate will affect the firms level of profits since output cannot be altered in response to a favourable or unfavourable move in the profitability of exports due to exchange rate movements and there are also limited hedging techniques. Therefore uncertainty about future exchange rates translates into uncertainty on future export receipts in domestic currency. This uncertainty will be considered by the firm when deciding on the level of exports. The firm maximises the expected value of utility which is assumed to take the following quadratic form: U(p)= a p +b p2 Under conditions of risk aversion (b   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  However the above analysis is based on a number of restrictive assumptions. Other researchers attempted to examine the relationship between exchange rate variability and trade flows by relaxing some of the assumptions like no hedging possibilities while still maintaining the risk aversion theory. Clark (1973) notes that while risk-aversion among traders might depress the volume of a countrys exports, perfect forward markets might reduce this effect. Advanced economies have well developed forward markets where specific transactions can be easily hedged, thus reducing exposure to unforeseen movements in exchange rates. However most developing countries do not have access to such markets for currencies. Baron (1976) finds that forward markets may not be sufficiently developed, and traders may still be unsure of how much foreign exchange they want to cover. In addition, Baron provides another approach to the model developed by Clark by relaxing the assumptions of perf ect competition and by emphasising on the role of the currency in which the products are invoiced. He argues that invoicing in a foreign currency will result in a price risk. When an exporting firm invoices its commodity in foreign currency, it is faced with the risk of variations in the foreign exchange which will affect revenue. The quantity demanded will however remain the same since the price will not change over the contract period and hence the firm cannot benefit from fluctuations in the foreign exchange rate. When invoicing in home currency, the exporter will face a quantity risk. This is because the quantity demanded will be uncertain since the price of the commodity to the buyer will be uncertain. The firm will also face uncertainties regarding its cost of production since the assumption that the firm will not import factor inputs is relaxed. In both cases the risk averse firm will try to minimise its risk exposure either by expanding or contracting supply. Baron shows tha t an increase in risk will cause prices to rise which will result in an increase in supply. The higher price reduces expected profits since demand is elastic at optimal prices, but it increases expected utility. On the other hand, if the firm invoices in domestic currency, its response will depend on the properties of the demand function in the destination market. Baron shows that if the function is linear, prices will decrease resulting in an increased demand. However the price-cost margin decreases which reduces the expectation and variance of profits. Also, under the basic model, changes in exchange rate does not have any effect on real opportunities available to the firm. Firms are held to be risk averse and factor inputs are assumed to be fixed. They are also assumed to make production and export decisions before the exchange rate is known and inventories are ignored. When the assumption of risk aversion is lifted, the negative relationship between exports and exchange rate volatility can even be reversed. De Grauwe(1988) developed a model that shows that the effect of volatility on trade will depend on the degree of risk aversion. He argued that firms with a slight degree of risk aversion will decrease their exports whereas very risk averse firms will increase exports so as to avoid a drastic decrease in their export revenues caused by higher exchange rate volatility. Franke(1991) showed in given a monopolistic setting, risk neutral firms may increase exports if exchange rate volatility increases. The theory that trade may be a ffected by exchange rate volatility is also based on the assumption that factor inputs cannot be altered so as to adjust optimally to a change in exchange rates. If firms are able to adjust one or more factors of production with respect to a change in exchange rates, variations in exchange rate may provide firm with the possibility of making a profit. This view was analysed by Canzoneri et al.(2004), De Grauwe(1992) and Gros(1987). In addition, Clark et al.(2004) affirm that there are several other factors which can reduce the negative effects of exchange rate volatility and trade. They argued that a multinational firm which engages in a diversity of trade and financial transactions across several countries can benefit from various opportunities to exploit offsetting movements in currencies and other variables. For example if an exporting firm is importing intermediate inputs from a country whose currency is depreciating, this can offset a decrease in export revenues through a decrease in cost of production. Also recent studies has shown that the tendency for exchange rates to adjust to differences in inflation rates and hence if exports are priced in a foreign currency that is depreciating, the loss to the exporter from the declining exchange rate is at least partly offset by higher foreign currency export price(Cushman 1083 and 1986) Finally as put forward by Makin(1978), multinationals have many possibilitie s of internally managing their exposure to foreign exchange risk, for example by holding a portfolio of assets and liabilities in different currencies. In his analysis of exchange rate volatility, Gros(1987) takes into account adjustment costs. His model consist of a risk neutral and competitive firm which exports its entire output. It is shown that if some factor can be adjusted instantaneously, an increase in exchange rate volatility increases a firms investment. The rationale behind this is that if exchange rate for the exporting firm is high, this means output price will be high and thus the firm can increase production by utilising more of the flexible factor so as to obtain a more than proportionate increase in profits. On the contrary if prices are low, production can be reduced to limit losses. An increases in the volatility of prices means that there is the possibility for excessive prices increases. Therefore it is more desirable for firms to have high capital stock and over time the export supple function shifts upwards. In this study, exchange rate variability affects exports through its effect on investment. Another aspect of the relationship between exchange rate variability and trade is the presence of sunk cost. Sunk market-entry costs are faced by risk neutral firms when they enter the market for exports. This would arise particularly where the firm is exporting differentiated goods and require substantial investment by the firm for example to adapt their product to foreign market and to create a marketing and distribution network. Sunk cost tend to make firms less responsive to short run fluctuations in the foreign exchange rate as they would have the tend to continue to operate in the market as long as they can recover their variable costs and to wait for a change in the exchange rate which will allow them to recoup their sunk costs((Baldwin,1988; Krugman, 1989) Finally, other researches like Bacchetta and Van Wincoop (2000) conduct their study within a general equilibrium framework. They use a simple general equilibrium model for two countries where the source of uncertainty are monetary, fiscal, and technology shocks, and they compare the level of trade and welfare for fixed and floating exchange rate arrangements. They reach two main conclusions. First, there is no clear relationship between the level of trade and the type of exchange rate arrangement. Second, the level of trade does not provide a good index of the level of welfare in a country, and hence there is no one-to-one relationship between levels of trade and welfare in comparing exchange rate systems. Theoretical analysis of the relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade flows has yielded indeterminate results and hence this issue has attracted a large number of empirical researches. One of the earliest analysis was carried out by Hooper and Kohlhagen(1978) who assessed the effect of exchange rate volatility on the volume of aggregate and bilateral trade flow for all G7 countries except for Italy using time series data for the period 1965-1975. They utilised the model by Ethier(1973) for traded goods and derived equations expressing export prices and quantities in terms of cost of production reflection both domestic and imported inputs, other domestic prices, domestic income and capacity utilisation. Exchange rate risk was measured using the average absolute difference between the current period spot exchange rate and the forward rate last period, as well as the variance of the nominal spot rate and the current forward rate. Their conclusion was that they found no sig nificant effect of exchange rate risk on the volume of trade.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Cushman(1983) uses a model similar to Hooper and Kohlhagen to investigate the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows among industrialised countries. However he enhances the model by extending the sample size to include more recent data and by using real rather than nominal exchange rate. Of the 14 sets of bilateral trade flows, Cushman found a significant negative effect of real exchange rate on trade flows in 6 cases against only 2 cases where the association is statistically significant and positive. Along the same line Bailey and Tavlas(1988) did not find any significant evidence of a negative effect of exchange rate variability on trade.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  The work of Akhtar and Hilton(1984) were among the few early papers which generated fairly consistent results. They derived volume and price equations for Germany and United States multilateral trade for the period pertaining to a floating exchange rate. Exchange rate volatility was measured in terms of the standard d

Contention about gay marriage Essay

Everyone has the right to get married, right, they should not be judged on who they are and what they believe. Everyone is equal and has equal rights I doesn’t matter what type of sex they are. Same-sex couples want to marry for all the same reasons as their opposite-sex counterparts. These reasons include: for legal security, to publicly celebrate their commitment, to provide greater legal protection for their children, or simply because they are in love. According to a national study by researchers at the University of Queensland, 54% of Australian same-sex partners would marry if they had the choice. 80% of Australians in same-sex relationships support marriage equality even if they do not wish to marry. First, we will look at the benefits that flow to same-sex couples who marry. This is followed by the wider social benefits that come from removing discrimination from the Marriage Act and ensuring equality for same-sex couples. Marriage has evolved throughout history, so it can change again. Different cultures have treated marriage differently. Some promoted arranged marriages. Others tied marriage to dowries. Still others saw marriage as a political relationship through which they could forge family alliances. But all these variations still embraced the fundamental, unchanging essence of marriage. They still saw it, in general, as a public, lifelong partnership between one man and one woman for the sake of generating and raising children. This understanding predates any government or religion. It’s a pre-political, pre-religious institution evident even in cultures that had no law or faith to promote it. Yet, even supposing the essence of marriage could change, would that mean it should? We know from other areas of life such as medical research and nuclear physics that just because you can do something doesn’t mean you ought. After all, such action may not be ethical or serve the common good. Even if this argument had historical basis, it would not necessarily be a good reason to change the meaning of  marriage.

Prelude to Foundation Chapter 15 Undercover

DAVAN-†¦ In the unsettled times marking the final centuries of the First Galactic Empire, the typical sources of unrest arose from the fact that political and military leaders jockeyed for â€Å"supreme† power (a supremacy that grew more worthless with each decade). Only rarely was there anything that could be called a popular movement prior to the advent of psychohistory. In this connection, one intriguing example involves Davan, of whom little is actually known, but who may have met with Hari Seldon at one time when†¦ Encyclopedia Galactica 72. Both Hari Seldon and Dors Venabili had taken rather lingering baths, making use of the somewhat primitive facilities available to them in the Tisalver household. They had changed their clothing and were in Seldon's room when Jirad Tisalver returned in the evening. His signal at the door was (or seemed) rather timid. The buzz did not last long. Seldon opened the door and said pleasantly, â€Å"Good evening, Master Tisalver. And Mistress.† She was standing right behind her husband, forehead puckered into a puzzled frown. Tisalver said tentatively, as though he was unsure of the situation, â€Å"Are you and Mistress Venabili both well?† He nodded his head as though trying to elicit an affirmative by body language. â€Å"Quite well. In and out of Billibotton without trouble and we're all washed and changed. There's no smell left.† Seldon lifted his chin as he said it, smiling, tossing the sentence over Tisalver's shoulder to his wife. She sniffed loudly, as though testing the matter. Still tentatively, Tisalver said, â€Å"I understand there was a knife fight.† Seldon raised his eyebrows. â€Å"Is that the story?† â€Å"You and the Mistress against a hundred thugs, we were cold, and you killed them all. Is that so?† There was the reluctant sound of deep respect in his voice. â€Å"Absolutely not,† Dors put in with sudden annoyance. â€Å"That's ridiculous. What do you think we are? Mass murderers? And do you think a hundred thugs would remain in place, waiting the considerable time it would take me-us-to kill them all? I mean, think about it.† â€Å"That's what they're saying,† said Casilia Tisalver with shrill firmness. â€Å"We can't have that sort of thing in this house.† â€Å"In the first place,† said Seldon, â€Å"it wasn't in this house. In the second, it wasn't a hundred men, it was ten. In the third, no one was killed. There was some altercation back and forth, after which they left and made way for us.† â€Å"They just made way. Do you expect me to believe that, Outworlders?† demanded Mistress Tisalver belligerently. Seldon sighed. At the slightest stress, human beings seemed to divide themselves into antagonistic groups. He said, â€Å"Well, I grant you one of them was cut a little. Not seriously.† â€Å"And you weren't hurt at all?† said Tisalver. The admiration in his voice was more marked. â€Å"Not a scratch,† said Seldon. â€Å"Mistress Venabili handles two knives excellently well.† â€Å"I dare say,† said Mistress Tisalver, her eyes dropping to Dors's belt, â€Å"and that's not what I want to have going on here.† Dors said sternly, â€Å"As long as no one attacks us here, that's what you won't have here.† â€Å"But on account of you,† said Mistress Tisalver, â€Å"we have trash from the street standing at the doorway.† â€Å"My love,† said Tisalver soothingly, â€Å"let us not anger-â€Å" â€Å"Why?† spat his wife with contempt. â€Å"Are you afraid of her knives? I would like to see her use them here.† â€Å"I have no intention of using them here,† said Dors with a sniff as loud as any that Mistress Tisalver had produced. â€Å"What is this trash from the street you're talking about?† Tisalver said, â€Å"What my wife means is that an urchin from Billibotton-at least, judging by his appearance-wishes to see you and we are not accustomed to that sort of thing in this neighborhood. It undermines our standing.† He sounded apologetic. Seldon said, â€Å"Well, Master Tisalver, we'll go outside, find out what it's all about, and send him on his business as quickly-â€Å" â€Å"No. Wait,† said Dors, annoyed. â€Å"These are our rooms. We pay for them. We decide who visits us and who does not. If there is a young man outside from Billibotton, he is nonetheless a Dahlite. More important, he's a Trantorian. Still more important, he's a citizen of the Empire and a human being. Most important, by asking to see us, he becomes our guest. Therefore, we invite him in to see us.† Mistress Tisalver didn't move. Tisalver himself seemed uncertain. Dors said, â€Å"Since you say I killed a hundred bullies in Billibotton, you surely do not think I am afraid of a boy or, for that matter, of you two.† Her right hand dropped casually to her belt. Tisalver said with sudden energy, â€Å"Mistress Venabili, we do not intend to offend you. Of course these rooms are yours and you can entertain whomever you wish here.† He stepped back, pulling his indignant wife with him, undergoing a burst of resolution for which he might conceivably have to pay afterward. Dors looked after them sternly. Seldon smiled dryly. â€Å"How unlike you, Dors. I thought I was the one who quixotically got into trouble and that you were the calm and practical one whose only aim was to prevent trouble.† Dors shook her head. â€Å"I can't bear to hear a human being spoken of with contempt just because of his group identification-even by other human beings. It's these respectable people here who create those hooligans out there.† â€Å"And other respectable people,† said Seldon, â€Å"who create these respectable people. These mutual animosities are as much a part of humanity-â€Å" â€Å"Then you'll have to deal with it in your psychohistory, won't you?† â€Å"Most certainly-if there is ever a psychohistory with which to deal with anything at all.-Ah, here comes the urchin under discussion. And it's Raych, which somehow doesn't surprise me.† 73. Raych entered, looking about, clearly intimidated. The forefinger of his right hand reached for his upper lip as though wondering when he would begin to feel the first downy hairs there. He turned to the clearly outraged Mistress Tisalver and bowed clumsily. â€Å"Thank ya, Missus. Ya got a lovely place.† Then, as the door slammed behind him, he turned to Seldon and Dors with an air of easy connoisseurship. â€Å"Nice place, guys.† â€Å"I'm glad you like it,† said Seldon solemnly. â€Å"How did you know we were here?† â€Å"Followed ya. How'd ya think? Hey, lady†-he turned to Dors-â€Å"you don't fight like no dame.† â€Å"Have you watched many dames fight?† asked Dors, amused. Raych rubbed his nose, â€Å"No, never seen none whatever. They don't carry knives, except little ones to scare kids with. Never scared me.† â€Å"I'm sure they didn't. What do you do to make dames draw their knives?† â€Å"Nothin'. You just kid around a little. You holler, ‘Hey, lady, lemme-‘ † He thought about it for a moment and said, â€Å"Nothin'.† Dors said, â€Å"Well, don't try that on me.† â€Å"Ya kiddin'? After what ya did to Marron? Hey, lady, where'd you learn to fight that way?† â€Å"On my own world.† â€Å"Could ya teach me?† â€Å"Is that what you came here to see me about?† â€Å"Akchaly, no. I came to bring ya a kind of message.† â€Å"From someone who wants to fight me?† â€Å"No one wants to fight ya, lady. Listen, lady, ya got a reputation now. Everybody knows ya. You just walk down anywhere in old Billibotton and all the guys will step aside and let ya pass and grin and make sure they don't look cross-eyed at ya. Oh, lady, ya got it made. That's why he wants to see ya.† Seldon said, â€Å"Raych, just exactly who wants to see us?† â€Å"Guy called Davan.† â€Å"And who is he?† â€Å"Just a guy. He lives in Billibotton and don't carry no knife.† â€Å"And he stays alive, Raych?† â€Å"He reads a lot and he helps the guys there when they get in trouble with the gov'ment. They kinda leave him alone. He don't need no knife.† â€Å"Why didn't he come himself, then?† said Dors. â€Å"Why did he send you?† â€Å"He don't like this place. He says it makes him sick. He says all the people here, they lick the gov'ment's-† He paused, looked dubiously at the two Outworlders, and said, â€Å"Anyway, he won't come here. He said they'd let me in cause I was only a kid.† He grinned. â€Å"They almost didn't, did they? I mean that lady there who looked like she was smellin' somethin'?† He stopped suddenly, abashed, and looked down at himself. â€Å"Ya don't get much chance to wash where I come from.† â€Å"It's all right,† said Dors, smiling. â€Å"Where are we supposed to meet, then, if he won't come here? After all-if you don't mind-we don't feel like going to Billibotton.† â€Å"I told ya,† said Raych indignantly. â€Å"Ya get free run of Billibotton, I swear. Besides, where he lives no one will bother ya.† â€Å"Where is it?† asked Seldon. â€Å"I can take ya there. It ain't far.† â€Å"And why does he want to see us?† asked Dors. â€Å"Dunno. But he says like this-† Raych half-closed his eyes in an effort to remember. † ‘Tell them I wanna see the man who talked to a Dahlite heatsinker like he was a human being and the woman who beat Marron with knives and didn't kill him when she mighta done so.' I think I got it right.† Seldon smiled. â€Å"I think you did. Is he ready for us now?† â€Å"He's waiting.† â€Å"Then we'll come with you.† He looked at Dors with a trace of doubt in his eyes. She said, â€Å"All right. I'm willing. Perhaps it won't be a trap of some sort. Hope springs eternal-â€Å" 74. There was a pleasant glow to the evening light when they emerged, a faint violet touch and a pinkish edge to the simulated sunset clouds that were scudding along. Dahl might have complaints of their treatment by the Imperial rulers of Trantor, but surely there was nothing wrong with the weather the computers spun out for them. Dors said in a low voice, â€Å"We seem to be celebrities. No mistake about that.† Seldon brought his eyes down from the supposed sky and was immediately aware of a fair-sized crowd around the apartment house in which the Tisalvers lived. Everyone in the crowd stared at them intently. When it was clear that the two Outworlders had become aware of the attention, a low murmur ran through the crowd, which seemed to be on the point of breaking out into applause. Dors said, â€Å"Now I can see where Mistress Tisalver would find this annoying. I should have been a little more sympathetic.† The crowd was, for the most part, poorly dressed and it was not hard to guess that many of the people were from Billibotton. On impulse, Seldon smiled and raised one hand in a mild greeting that was met with applause. One voice, lost in the safe anonymity of the crowd called out, â€Å"Can the lady show us some knife tricks?† When Dors called back, â€Å"No, I only draw in anger,† there was instant laughter. One man stepped forward. He was clearly not from Billibotton and bore no obvious mark of being a Dahlite. He had only a small mustache, for one thing, and it was brown, not black. He said, â€Å"Marlo Tanto of the ‘Trantorian HV News.' Can we have you in focus for a bit for our nightly holocast?† â€Å"No,† said Dors shortly. â€Å"No interviews.† The newsman did not budge. â€Å"I understand you were in a fight with a great many men in Billibotton-and won.† He smiled. â€Å"That's news, that is.† â€Å"No,† said Dors. â€Å"We met some men in Billibotton, talked to them, and then moved on. That's all there is to it and that's all you're going to get.† â€Å"What's your name? You don't sound like a Trantorian.† â€Å"I have no name.† â€Å"And your friend's name?† â€Å"He has no name.† The newsman looked annoyed, â€Å"Look, lady. You're news and I'm just trying to do my job.† Raych pulled at Dors's sleeve. She leaned down and listened to his earnest whisper. She nodded and straightened up again. â€Å"I don't think you're a newsman, Mr. Tanto. What I think you are is an Imperial agent trying to make trouble for Dahl. There was no fight and you're trying to manufacture news concerning one as a way of justifying an Imperial expedition into Billibotton. I wouldn't stay here if I were you. I don't think you're very popular with these people.† The crowd had begun to mutter at Dors's first words. They grew louder now and began to drift, slowly and in a menacing way, in the direction of Tanto. He looked nervously around and began to move away. Dors raised her voice. â€Å"Let him go. Don't anyone touch him. Don't give him any excuse to report violence.† And they parted before him. Raych said, â€Å"Aw, lady, you shoulda let them rough him up.† â€Å"Bloodthirsty boy,† said Dors, â€Å"take us to this friend of yours.† 75. They met the man who called himself Davan in a room behind a dilapidated diner. Far behind. Raych led the way, once more showing himself as much at home in the burrows of Billibotton as a mole would be in tunnels underground in Helicon. It was Dors Venabili whose caution first manifested itself. She stopped and said, â€Å"Come back, Raych. Exactly where are we going?† â€Å"To Davan,† said Raych, looking exasperated. â€Å"I told ya.† â€Å"But this is a deserted area. There's no one living here.† Dors looked about with obvious distaste. The surroundings were lifeless and what light panels there were did not glower [but] did so only dimly. â€Å"It's the way Davan likes it,† said Raych. â€Å"He's always changing around, staying here, staying there. Ya know†¦ changing around.† â€Å"Why?† demanded Dors. â€Å"It's safer, lady.† â€Å"From whom?† â€Å"From the gov'ment.† â€Å"Why would the government want Davan?† â€Å"I dunno, lady. Tell ya what. I'll tell ya where he is and tell ya how to go and ya go on alone-if ya don't want me to take ya.† Seldon said, â€Å"No, Raych, I'm pretty sure we'll get lost without you. In fact, you had better wait till we're through so you can lead us back.† Raych said at once, â€Å"What's in it f'me? Ya expect me to hang around when I get hungry?† â€Å"You hang around and get hungry, Raych, and I'll buy you a big dinner. Anything you like.† â€Å"Ya say that now. Mister. How do I know?† Dors's hand flashed and it was holding a knife, blade exposed, â€Å"You're not calling us liars, are you, Raych?† Raych's eyes opened wide. He did not seem frightened by the threat. He said, â€Å"Hey, I didn't see that. Do it again.† â€Å"I'll do it afterward-if you're still here. Otherwise†-Dors glared at him-â€Å"we'll track you down.† â€Å"Aw, lady, come on,† said Raych. â€Å"Ya ain't gonna track me down. Ya ain't that kind. But I'll be here.† He struck a pose. â€Å"Ya got my word.† And he led them onward in silence, though the sound of their shoes was hollow in the empty corridors. Davan looked up when they entered, a wild look that softened when he saw Raych. He gestured quickly toward the two others-questioningly. Raych said, â€Å"These are the guys.† And, grinning, he left. Seldon said, â€Å"I am Hari Seldon. The young lady is Dors Venabili.† He regarded Davan curiously. Davan was swarthy and had the thick black mustache of the Dahlite male, but in addition he had a stubble of beard. He was the first Dahlite whom Seldon had seen who had not been meticulously shaven. Even the bullies of Billibotton had been smooth of cheek and chin. Seldon said, â€Å"What is your name, sir?† â€Å"Davan. Raych must have told you.† â€Å"Your second name.† â€Å"I am only Davan. Were you followed here, Master Seldon?† â€Å"No, I'm sure we weren't. If we had, then by sound or sight, I expect Raych would have known. And if he had not, Mistress Venabili would have.† Dors smiled slightly. â€Å"You have faith in me, Hari.† â€Å"More all the time,† he said thoughtfully. Davan stirred uneasily. â€Å"Yet you've already been found.† â€Å"Found?† â€Å"Yes, I have heard of this supposed newsman.† â€Å"Already?† Seldon looked faintly surprised. â€Å"But I suspect he really was a newsman†¦ and harmless. We tatted him an Imperial agent at Raych's suggestion, which was a good idea. The surrounding crowd grew threatening and we got rid of him.† â€Å"No,† said Davan, â€Å"he was what you called him. My people know the man and he does work for the Empire.-But then you do not do as I do. You do not use a false name and change your place of abode. You go under your own names, making no effort to remain undercover. You are Hari Seldon, the mathematician.† â€Å"Yes, I am,† said Seldon. â€Å"Why should I invent a false name?† â€Å"The Empire wants you, does it not?† Seldon shrugged. â€Å"I stay in places where the Empire cannot reach out to take me.† â€Å"Not openly, but the Empire doesn't have to work openly. I would urge you to disappear†¦ really disappear.† â€Å"Like you†¦ as you say,† said Seldon looking about with an edge of distaste. The room was as dead as the corridors he had walked through. It was musty through and through and it was overwhelmingly depressing. â€Å"Yes,† said Davan. â€Å"You could be useful to us.† â€Å"In what way?† â€Å"You talked to a young man named Yugo Amaryl.† â€Å"Yes, I did.† â€Å"Amaryl tells me that you can predict the future.† Seldon sighed heavily. He was tired of standing in this empty room. Davan was sitting on a cushion and there were other cushions available, but they did not look clean. Nor did he wish to lean against the mildew-streaked wall. He said, â€Å"Either you misunderstood Amaryl or Amaryl misunderstood me. What I have done is to prove that it is possible to choose starting conditions from which historical forecasting does not descend into chaotic conditions, but can become predictable within limits. However, what those starting conditions might be I do not know, nor am I sure that those conditions can be found by any one person-or by any number of people-in a finite length of time. Do you understand me?† â€Å"No.† Seldon sighed again. â€Å"Then let me try once more. It is possible to predict the future, but it may be impossible to find out how to take advantage of that possibility. Do you understand?† Davan looked at Seldon darkly, then at Dors. â€Å"Then you can't predict the future.† â€Å"Now you have the point, Master Davan.† â€Å"Just call me Davan. But you may be able to learn to predict the future someday.† â€Å"That is conceivable.† â€Å"Then that's why the Empire wants you.† â€Å"No,† Seldon raised his finger didactically. â€Å"It's my idea that that is why the Empire is not making an overwhelming effort to get me. They might like to have me if I can be picked up without trouble, but they know that right now I know nothing and that it is therefore not worth upsetting the delicate peace of Trantor by interfering with the local rights of this sector or that. That's the reason I can move about under my own name with reasonable security.† For a moment, Davan buried his head in his hands and muttered, â€Å"This is madness.† Then he looked up wearily and said to Dors, â€Å"Are you Master Seldon's wife?† Dors said calmly, â€Å"I am his friend and protector.† â€Å"How well do you know him?† â€Å"We have been together for some months.† â€Å"No more?† â€Å"No more.† â€Å"Would it be your opinion he is speaking the truth?† â€Å"I know he is, but what reason would you have to trust me if you do not trust him? If Hari is, for some reason, lying to you, might I not be lying to you equally in order to support him?† Davan looked from one to the other helplessly. Then he said, â€Å"Would you, in any case, help us?† â€Å"Who are ‘us' and in what way do you need help?† Davan said, â€Å"You see the situation here in Dahl. We are oppressed. You must know that and, from your treatment of Yugo Amaryl, I cannot believe you lack sympathy for us.† â€Å"We are fully sympathetic.† â€Å"And you must know the source of the oppression.† â€Å"You are going to tell me that it's the Imperial government, I suppose, and I dare say it plays its part. On the other hand, I notice that there is a middle class in Dahl that despises the heatsinkers and a criminal class that terrorizes the rest of the sector.† Davan's lips tightened, but he remained unmoved. â€Å"Quite true. Quite true. But the Empire encourages it as a matter of principle. Dahl has the potential for making serious trouble. If the heatsinkers should go on strike, Trantor would experience a severe energy shortage almost at once†¦ with all that that implies. However, Dahl's own upper classes will spend money to hire the hoodlums of Billibotton-and of other places-to fight the heatsinkers and break the strike. It has happened before. The Empire allows some Dahlites to prosper-comparatively-in order to convert them into Imperialist lackeys, while it refuses to enforce the arms-control laws effectively enough to weaken the criminal element. â€Å"The Imperial government does this everywhere-and not in Dahl alone. They can't exert force to impose their will, as in the old days when they ruled with brutal directness. Nowadays, Trantor has grown so complex and so easily disturbed that the Imperial forces must keep their hands off-â€Å" â€Å"A form of degeneration,† said Seldon, remembering Hummin's complaints. â€Å"What?† said Davan. â€Å"Nothing,† said Seldon. â€Å"Go on.† â€Å"The Imperial forces must keep their hands off, but they find that they can do much even so. Each sector is encouraged to be suspicious of its neighbors. Within each sector, economic and social classes are encouraged to wage a kind of war with each other. The result is that all over Trantor it is impossible for the people to take united action. Everywhere, the people would rather fight each other than make a common stand against the central tyranny and the Empire rules without having to exert force.† â€Å"And what,† said Dors, â€Å"do you think can be done about it?† â€Å"I've been trying for years to build a feeling of solidarity among the peoples of Trantor.† â€Å"I can only suppose,† said Seldon dryly, â€Å"that you are finding this an impossibly difficult and largely thankless task.† â€Å"You suppose correctly,† said Davan, â€Å"but the party is growing stronger. Many of our knifers are coming to the realization that knives are best when they are not used on each other. Those who attacked you in the corridors of Billibotton are examples of the unconverted. However, those who support you now, who are ready to defend you against the agent you thought was a newsman, are my people. I live here among them. It is not an attractive way of life, but I am safe here. We have adherents in neighboring sectors and we spread daily.† â€Å"But where do we come in?† asked Dors. â€Å"For one thing,† said Davan, â€Å"both of you are Outworlders, scholars. We need people like you among our leaders. Our greatest strength is drawn from the poor and the uneducated because they suffer the most, but they can lead the least. A person like one of you two is worth a hundred of them.† â€Å"That's an odd estimate from someone who wishes to rescue the oppressed,† said Seldon. â€Å"I don't mean as people,† said Davan hastily. â€Å"I mean as far as leadership is concerned. The party must have among its leaders men and women of intellectual power.† â€Å"People like us, you mean, are needed to give your party a veneer of respectability.† Davan said, â€Å"You can always put something noble in a sneering fashion if you try. But you, Master Seldon, are more than respectable, more than intellectual. Even if you won't admit to being able to penetrate the mists of the future-â€Å" â€Å"Please, Davan,† said Seldon, â€Å"don't be poetic and don't use the conditional. It's not a matter of admitting. I can't foresee the future. Those are not mists that block the view but chrome steel barriers.† â€Å"Let me finish. Even if you can't actually predict with-what do you call it?-psychohistorical accuracy, you've studied history and you may have a certain intuitive feeling for consequences. Now, isn't that so?† Seldon shook his head. â€Å"I may have a certain intuitive understanding for mathematical likelihood, but how far I can translate that into anything of historical significance is quite uncertain. Actually, I have not studied history. I wish I had. I feel the loss keenly.† Dors said evenly, â€Å"I am the historian, Davan, and I can say a few things if you wish.† â€Å"Please do,† said Davan, making it half a courtesy, half a challenge. â€Å"For one thing, there have been many revolutions in Galactic history that have overthrown tyrannies, sometimes on individual planets, sometimes in groups of them, occasionally in the Empire itself or in the pre-Imperial regional governments. Often, this has only meant a change in tyranny. In other words, one ruling class is replaced by another-sometimes by one that is more efficient and therefore still more capable of maintaining itself-while the poor and downtrodden remain poor and downtrodden or become even worse off.† Davan, listening intently, said, â€Å"I'm aware of that. We all are. Perhaps we can learn from the past and know better what to avoid. Besides, the tyranny that now exists is actual. That which may exist in the future is merely potential. If we are always to draw back from change with the thought that the change may be for the worse, then there is no hope at all of ever escaping injustice.† Dors said, â€Å"A second point you must remember is that even if you have right on your side, even if justice thunders condemnation, it is usually the tyranny in existence that has the balance of force on its side. There is nothing your knife handlers can do in the way of rioting and demonstrating that will have any permanent effect as long as, in the extremity, there is an army equipped with kinetic, chemical, and neurological weapons that is willing to use them against your people. You can get all the downtrodden and even all the respectables on your side, but you must somehow win over the security forces and the Imperial army or at least seriously weaken their loyalty to the rulers.† Davan said, â€Å"Trantor is a multigovernmental world. Each sector has its own rulers and some of them are themselves anti-Imperial. If we can have a strong sector on our side, that would change the situation, would it not? We would then not be merely ragamuffins fighting with knives and stones.† â€Å"Does that mean you do have a strong sector on your side or merely that it is your ambition to have one?† Davan was silent. Dors said, â€Å"I shall assume that you are thinking of the Mayor of Wye. If the Mayor is in the mood to make use of popular discontent as a way of improving the chance of toppling the Emperor, doesn't it strike you that the end the Mayor would have in view would be that of succeeding to the Imperial throne? Why should the Mayor risk his present not-inconsiderable position for anything less? Merely for the blessings of justice and the decent treatment of people, concerning whom he can have little interest?† â€Å"You mean,† said Davan, â€Å"that any powerful leader who is willing to help us may then betray us.† â€Å"It is a situation that is all too common in Galactic history.† â€Å"If we are ready for that, might we not betray him?† â€Å"You mean, make use of him and then, at some crucial moment, subvert the leader of his forces-or a leader, at any rate-and have him assassinated?† â€Å"Not perhaps exactly like that, but some way of getting rid of him might exist if that should prove necessary.† â€Å"Then we have a revolutionary movement in which the principal players must be ready to betray each other, with each simply waiting for the opportunity. It sounds like a recipe for chaos.† â€Å"You will not help us, then?† said Davan. Seldon, who had been listening to the exchange between Davan and Dors with a puzzled frown on his face, said, â€Å"We can't put it that simply. We would like to help you. We are on your side. It seems to me that no sane man wants to uphold an Imperial system that maintains itself by fostering mutual hatred and suspicions. Even when it seems to work, it can only be described as meta-stable; that is, as too apt to fall into instability in one direction or another. But the question is: How can we help? If I had psychohistory, if I could tell what is most likely to happen, or if I could tell what action of a number of alternative possibilities is most likely to bring on an apparently happy consequence, then I would put my abilities at your disposal.-But I don't have it. I can help you best by trying to develop psychohistory.† â€Å"And how long will that take?† Seldon shrugged. â€Å"I cannot say.† â€Å"How can you ask us to wait indefinitely?† â€Å"What alternative do I have, since I am useless to you as I am? But I will say this: I have until very recently been quite convinced that the development of psychohistory was absolutely impossible. Now I am not so certain of that.† â€Å"You mean you have a solution in mind?† â€Å"No, merely an intuitive feeling that a solution might be possible. I have not been able to pin down what has occurred to make me have that feeling. It may be an illusion, but I am trying. Let me continue to try.-Perhaps [then we'll] meet again.† â€Å"Or perhaps,† said Davan, â€Å"if you return to where you are now staying, you will eventually find yourself in an Imperial trap. You may think that the Empire will leave you alone while you struggle with psychohistory, but I am certain the Emperor and his toady Demerzel are in no mood to wait forever, any more than I am.† â€Å"It will do them no good to hasten,† said Seldon calmly, â€Å"since I am not on their side, as I am on yours.-Come, Dors.† They turned and left Davan, sitting alone in his squalid room, and found Raych waiting for them outside. 76. Raych was eating, licking his fingers, and crumpling the bag in which the food-whatever it was-had been. A strong smell of onions pervaded the air-different somehow, yeast-based perhaps. Dors, retreating a little from the odor, said, â€Å"Where did you get the food from, Raych?† â€Å"Davan's guys. They brought it to me. Davan's okay.† â€Å"Then we don't have to buy you dinner, do we?† said Seldon, conscious of his own empty stomach. â€Å"Ya owe me somethin',† said Raych, looking greedily in Dors's direction. â€Å"How about the lady's knife? One of 'em.† â€Å"No knife,† said Dors. â€Å"You get us back safely and I'll give you five credits.† â€Å"Can't get no knife for five credits,† grumbled Raych. â€Å"You're not getting anything but five credits,† said Dors. â€Å"You're a lousy dame, lady,† said Raych. â€Å"I'm a lousy dame with a quick knife, Raych, so get moving.† â€Å"All right. Don't get all perspired.† Raych waved his hand. â€Å"This way.† It was back through the empty corridors, but this time Dors, looking this way and that, stopped. â€Å"Hold on, Raych. We're being followed.† Raych looked exasperated. â€Å"Ya ain't supposed to hear 'em.† Seldon said, bending his head to one side, â€Å"I don't hear anything.† â€Å"I do,† said Dors. â€Å"Now, Raych, I don't want any fooling around. You tell me right now what's going on or I'll rap your head so that you won't see straight for a week. I mean it.† Raych held up one arm defensively. â€Å"You try it, you lousy dame. You try it. It's Davan's guys. They're just taking care of us, in case any knifers come along.† â€Å"Davan's guys?† â€Å"Yeah. They're goin' along the service corridors.† Dors's right hand shot out and seized Raych by the scruff of his upper garment. She lifted and he dangled, shouting, â€Å"Hey, lady. Hey!† Seldon said, â€Å"Dors! Don't be hard on him.† â€Å"I'll be harder still if I think he's lying. You're my charge, Hari, not he.† â€Å"I'm not lyin',† said Raych, struggling. â€Å"I'm not.† â€Å"I'm sure he isn't,† said Seldon. â€Å"Well, we'll see. Raych, tell them to come out where we can see them.† She let him drop and dusted her hands. â€Å"You're some kind of nut, lady,† said Raych aggrievedly. Then he raised his voice. â€Å"Yay, Davan! Come out here, some of ya guys!† There was a wait and then, from an unlit opening along the corridor, two dark-mustached men came out, one with a scar running the length of his cheek. Each held the sheath of a knife in his hand, blade withdrawn. â€Å"How many more of you are there?† asked Dors harshly. â€Å"A few,† said one of the newcomers. â€Å"Orders. We're guarding you. Davan wants you safe.† â€Å"Thank you. Try to be even quieter. Raych, keep on moving.† Raych said sulkily, â€Å"Ya roughed me up when I was telling the truth.† â€Å"You're right,† said Dors. â€Å"At least, I think you're right†¦ and I apologize.† â€Å"I'm not sure I should accept,† said Raych, trying to stand tall. â€Å"But awright, just this once.† He moved on. When they reached the walkway, the unseen corps of guards vanished. At least, even Dors's keen ears could hear them no more. By now, though, they were moving into the respectable part of the sector. Dors said thoughtfully, â€Å"I don't think we have clothes that would fit you, Raych.† Raych said, â€Å"Why do ya want clothes to fit me, Missus?† (Respectability seemed to invade Raych once they were out of the corridors.) â€Å"I got clothes.† â€Å"I thought you'd like to come into our place and take a bath.† Raych said, â€Å"What for? I'll wash one o' these days. And I'll put on my other shirt.† He looked up at Dors shrewdly. â€Å"You're sorry ya roughed me up. Right? Ya tryin' to make up?† Dors smiled. â€Å"Yes. Sort of.† Raych waved a hand in lordly fashion. â€Å"That's all right. Ya didn't hurt. Listen. You're strong for a lady. Ya lifted me up like I was nothin'.† â€Å"I was annoyed, Raych. I have to be concerned about Master Seldon.† â€Å"Ya sort of his bodyguard?† Raych looked at Seldon inquiringly. â€Å"Ya got a lady for a bodyguard?† â€Å"I can't help it,† said Seldon smiling wryly. â€Å"She insists. And she certainly knows her job.† Dors said, â€Å"Think again, Raych. Are you sure you won't have a bath? A nice warm bath.† Raych said, â€Å"I got no chance. Ya think that lady is gonna let me in the house again?† Dors looked up and saw Casilia Tisalver outside the front door of the apartment complex, staring first at the Outworld woman and then at the slum-bred boy. It would have been impossible to tell in which case her expression was angrier. Raych said, â€Å"Well, so long, Mister and Missus. I don't know if she'll let either of ya in the house.† He placed his hands in his pocket and swaggered off in a fine affectation of carefree indifference. Seldon said, â€Å"Good evening, Mistress Tisalver. It's rather late, isn't it?† â€Å"It's very late,† she replied. â€Å"There was a near riot today outside this very complex because of that newsman you pushed the street vermin at.† â€Å"We didn't push anyone on anyone,† said Dors. â€Å"I was there,† said Mistress Tisalver intransigently. â€Å"I saw it.† She stepped aside to let them enter, but delayed long enough to make her reluctance quite plain. â€Å"She acts as though that was the last straw,† said Dors as she and Seldon made their way up to their rooms. â€Å"So? What can she do about it?† asked Seldon. â€Å"I wonder,† said Dors.

Art and 20th Century Technology Essay - 1049 Words

Art and 20th Century Technology When asked to think of a kind of 20th century technology, the majority of people today would automatically picture the computer. The computer has surpassed all other types of machines before it. In approximately two decades, the computer has managed to contact almost every aspect of our lives. From small businesses who rely on PCs to Macintoshs famous Apples for students to promote computers in the classroom. Much of our lives have been recorded somehow on computer databases somewhere. Bank accounts, hospital records, and tax records are all kept on databases in the computer. Computers and computer programs have allowed for improvements in telematics, robotics and have allowed for the development of†¦show more content†¦His prime example was hearing and how the latest sound technologies have drastically improved the quality of sound recordings with such examples as the introduction of synthesizers and relying on computers to do some forms of composing. However, with his disc ussion of technology in the visual arts, he primarily focused on how should utilize this new technology for artistic ...conservation, reproduction and the use of novel scientific methods for the study of art objects and for their restoration. This is only the beginning of all that might be accomplished with technology. Many artists today would like to dismiss the use of computers in the creation of artwork because they view it as relying on the talents of the computer programmer who designed the computer rather then relying on only the talents of the artist. This argument is some what valid, however one can point out the artist has come to rely on many tools that allow for the artist to create new works of art that arent necessarily the complete result of his/her talents. In my opinion, the computer is just that, another tool. 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